“Trump’s Exit Strategy” by Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafir’

Seems like everyone has a conspiracy theory, so why shouldn’t I have one? There is no certainty that my theory will come true, but others are also in the same boat as I am. No sooner had it became obvious that Mr. Trump’s impeachment was inevitable due to his soliciting Ukraine’s interference to reveal dirt on Mr. Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, than he asked China and Australia to look for more dirt on Biden and his son.

Mr. Trump did great things for this country such as getting rid of ISIS, Let NATO countries pay their dues, initiate policies to boost economy, struggle to stop illegal immigrants, ask China and Europe to do business on equal playing fields, withdraw from unending and wasteful tribal wars in Syria (and Afghanistan which is in progress) contrary to the prediction that he couldn’t have been trusted with Gold Code (the nuclear code that presidents always carry). So, why is he behaving erratically to devastate Joe Biden and Hunter now?

I think he has gotten irrational due to constant irritant from the Democrats. Now with his back to the wall he, feels frustrated and helpless. No doubt that Mr. Biden is senile and incoherent. Hunter Biden was involved in drawing on investments from the Chinese government-owned Bank of China and had similar deals from Ukraine. The Chinese fund was announced in 2013, days after Hunter Biden and one of his daughters flew to China from Japan aboard Air Force Two with the Vice-President.

But why is Trump doing all this now? Two reasons. First, his business empire is losing money as he is not paying attention to it (also, he donates his salary to the veterans) and secondly, he cannot take the heat of Washington politics. He not only has a thin skin and a foul mouth, he lacks the temperament a president ought to have. Trump is losing three to five billion dollars a year because he is not able to manage his business personally. He can’t afford this to continue.

Mr. Trump also knows that the Democrats will not let him live in peace after he leaves the presidency. The Democrats are already borrowing a page from Trump’s own playbook, “Lock him up.” The only thing that can save him is a pardon from President Pence. You may be thinking how? Well, my theory is that Mr. Trump will certainly win the 2020 election. He will resign in the middle of the next term which will make Mike Pence our 46th president. The condition for the transfer of power will be that Mr. Pence provide complete absolution to Mr. Trump for the charges brought upon him by the Democrats.

Like my theory? Hate it? Not sure? Please post your feedback.

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Friday Fun: “Parking Lost”​ By Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafi’

Dork Dunce is very particular about his workout regimen. He never misses out on walking in shopping malls to save his sweat. One day I accompanied him to the mall because I needed to buy a melon slicer.

“There is one,” I shouted pointing to an empty parking space, but he kept on driving to find a more convenient spot.

“Why don’t you park over there?” I asked pointing to the space on the other side of the median.

“Oh, sure, you want me to park there so that I never see my car again?” Asked Dork.

“Buddy, do you realize that you are driving an old clunker whose tailgate is held up with bungee cords and the side-view mirrors are just hanging there on life support?”

Suddenly, he put pedal to the metal snapping my neck like a slinky. He noticed an old lady coming with loaded shopping bags towards her car. She then made a vigorous search for keys in her purse.

Finally after locating her key ring, she stuck a key in the car door slowly as if she was anticipating ketchup to drip from the bottle – “slow and good.” She jiggled the key left and right not realizing that it was the wrong key. She found another key in the key ring. After fidgeting forever, she was able to open her car door. Having dropped her keys in back in her purse, the old lady started digging her purse again like a gofer.

Next she started the pre-flight inspection. She locked doors. Buckled seat belt. Adjusted radio. Checked makeup in the rearview mirror. She checked makeup again.

Finally her brake lights blinked and she started pulling out of her parking space. Dork immediately put his car in the first and revved the engine like a tiger jumping toward its prey. The woman stopped and looked both ways.

Suddenly the old lady slammed on her brakes and started adjusting her side mirrors. At this point Dork lost his patience. He started beating on the steering wheel in rage. The car behind him started honking at Dork. Dork honked too in retaliation. The driver of the other car showed finger to Dork. Dork made the same gesticulation in return. Meanwhile, a red car came around the corner and made a sling shot into old lady’s parking space.

“Why did you come to the mall? I asked.

“To walk,” Dork answered dismayed.

Current Affairs: “Vulnerability of the US Defense System-It’s Not Good” by Anil Shrivastava “Musafir”

The US defense budget for the fiscal year 2019 is a whopping $693 billion. That is more than the budget of the next seven highest spenders combined. I don’t think that the massive dollar amount tells us the entire story. The question is “Are we getting our money’s worth?” Unfortunately, most of the money allocated for defense is pocketed by the defense contractors. As an example, General Dynamics, where I worked from 1983 till 1985, sold toilet seats to the US Air Force for $10,000 a piece. You can imagine the magnitude of the abuse. Their biggest contractor, Boeing couldn’t design 737 Max correctly destroying hundreds of innocent lives. Six months have passed to those tragedies. Their planes are still grounded in planes’ graveyard. Again, question comes to mind, “How cost effective and reliable is our defense system?” A food for thought: India’s unmanned mission to Mars costed 66 million dollars which is only 11% of what it costs the United States for a similar mission

It’s especially scary in the light of USA’s recent system’s failure in detecting and defending drone strike by low tech Yemeni’s (Houthi rebels) drone that knocked out Saudi Arabia’s major oil facility on September 14, 2019 crippling 5% of world’s oil production. Saudi Arabia recently spent billions of dollars in building six battalions of US made Patriot surface to air missiles and radars. The system failed to detect and intercept the Yemeni drone. And it was not the first time that the US defense system failed. Patriot failed five times before when Saudi Arabia tried to stop a barrage of rocket strikes in March of 2018. The customers too have limits to their patience. Do not be surprised if Saudi Arabia, just like Turkey and India, would choose the Russian built S-400 system soon (according to the latest report by Bloomberg that I read while writing this article, The Saudis are already negotiating with Russia to obtain their S-400 system). It reminds me of the Japanese auto giants almost annihilating US car manufacturers in the 1980s. I was working for General Motors at that time.

The videos have shown that Patriots exploded on their way and veered off its course. “It’s nothing but an unbroken trail of disasters with the weapon system,” said Theodore Postol of MIT. As an American, I am not happy to report this to you, but I can’t do anything but write to our Senators and Congressmen/women to put our country ahead of their personal interest. What is happening is not good for America.

Commentary: “Global Warming Is Real No Matter What Anyone Says” by Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafir’

I don’t know, if the global warming is totally man made or not, but I know this much that it is real. It is obvious by increase in average global temperature, forest fires in the United States and recently in the Amazon rain forest. The fire in Amazon happened because of deforestation activities. It is no secret that natural calamities are occurring more frequently. Such disasters are rooted in climate change. It has been reported that Jakarta, capital of Indonesia, is sinking and so is New Orleans. Ice caps over Arctic are melting giving way to new sea routes. We don’t need any more evidence to realize that global warming is real. This exploitation of the earth’s resources will impact the future generation and that is exactly what is happening now.

Any new structure that we build must be part of nature and not exploit nature. As an evidence, the temperature in cities is higher than the periphery of cities where large green areas are available. This allows the heat to reflect from buildings and roads to dissipate, whereas in dense cities 70 per cent of the area is covered with buildings which re-radiate heat after absorbing solar heat and there is very little green area for the heat to dissipate. The frequent floods in Houston and Mumbai are the result of disappearing green space replaced with concrete. Whenever the earth is excavated for any construction and development, the flora and fauna and the remaining open area of the excavated soil around the building and structures must be restored to its original position.

Another warning: electric cars are not going to reduce global warning as long as we keep generating electricity using fossil fuels. Think about it. Go to the root cause of the problem.

Non-degradable plastic containers have become one of the major polluters of the environment; they choke the surface and underground sewers, water channels, sea beds and coral reef. There is need to reduce the use of plastics in the form of plastic bottles, carry bags and containers. Instead, glass, laminated cloth and jute bags and earthen containers are preferable. I for one have stopped using plastic and take reusable bags to buy groceries.

Man must take urgent action to restore whatever is destroyed in nature. The earth must be restored to its original state so that the next generation can inherit a sustainable living environment. It’s time to act, otherwise we won’t have much left to save.

The Fall 2019 Issue if Thethinkclub Is Here. Go to www.ThethinkClub.com

The Fall 2019 issue of Thethinkclub is here for your reading pleasures. You’ll find several articles by authors other than Musafir and Mental Exercise inside. 

Please don’t forget to send your feedback to letters@TheThinkClub.com.

Please click  below then click on Thethinkclub cover photo:

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Book Review

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House (400 pp)

📷Prediction is that our universe will come to an end in ten billion years. China will surpass the USA economically by the year 2030. Arctic will become ice free in another 25 years from now.

What if those predictions don’t happen? Yes, improbable is possible and this is the theme of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, “The Black Swan.” People used to think that all swans are white until they found a black swan swims by in Australia. The improbable happened. At the same breath, Taleb gives the example of stock market predictions. According to him, stock market predictions are useless because no one can say accurately where the stocks are headed.

What experts predict are liable to be wrong because experts usually use bell curves where most distributions gravitate towards the center. In real life, this doesn’t always happen increasing the chances of improbable happening.

The book cites examples of events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the fall of the Berlin Wall that very few foresaw. Taleb wants the readers to expect what may be unlikely to happen such an s asteroids colliding with earth. Taleb’s mistrust in academicians’ forecasts is obvious from his ridicule of economists like Harry M. Markowitz and William F. Sharpe, winners of the 1990 Nobel Prize. He states that they are nothing more than quacks and swindlers.

The Black Swan is not an easy read. It systematically goes through examples and situations that are complex and sometimes difficult to comprehend. Taleb is painstaking, almost encyclopedic, in his enumeration of ways in which our understanding of information breaks down. He draws on ideas from Greek, Roman, Arab, French, and English thinkers spanning more than two millennia.

After reading “The Black Swan,” I started feeling extremely skeptical of anybody who makes any prediction about the future. I don’t know that’s good or bad.  –Reviewed by Musafir

The Art of Racing

Author: Garth Stein

Publisher: Harper Collins (338 pp)

📷“This was a good read… not in an ebullient way that I suspected at first when I picked it up, but on a different level. A bitter sweet story.

I loved the perspicacious dog Enzo, the true protagonist of the book, who tells the story and ruminates on the meaning of life, who longs to be a human being in his next life (“Here is why I will be a good person. Because I listen….”) – ha!…; even though he wonders “…how difficult it must be to be a person. To constantly subvert your desires. To worry about doing the right thing, rather than doing what is most expedient” (hmm… indeed!); who discerns so well what people are all about: that “be it through intention or ignorance, our successes and our failures have been brought on by none other than ourselves”…; who likes “to live every day as if it were stolen from death, that is how I would love to live”… (much agree!); a dog who loves to eat pancakes and bananas!… And I truly don’t think that the idea for this book is too uncanny – in my own experience dogs are extremely sensitive and intelligent creatures.

What I didn’t care for was the “car racing” metaphor for “life”, or, rather, I didn’t care for the technicalities and history of car racing itself (I really felt like skipping those parts…). Even though it is so interconnected with everything that’s going on in the book – Enzo’s master being a car race driver… But for me, it didn’t take away much from the novel. A case in point is this quote: “There is no dishonor in losing the race… There is only dishonor in not racing because you are afraid to lose” (even though it’s a bit of a cliché).

This is not a book where you rapturously re-read this or that sentence, just for the beauty of expression. The characters are at times over-simplified in their description. But it’s nevertheless, a good, fast, and even poignant read.”  -Reviewed by Clara

 

Short Essay: “Victim of His Own” by Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafir’

“When you victimize yourself, you rid yourself of responsibility”

The other day I got reminded of a story that I heard years ago. It goes something like this:

A man moved to a new town and asked an old neighbor, “How are the folks in this subdivision?”

The old man replied, “How were the folks where you lived before?”

The new neighbor replied, “They were kind, friendly and compassionate.”

“You’ll find similar people in this subdivision also,” replied the old neighbor.

After a few years another person moved to the same neighborhood and asked the same old neighbor, “How are the folks in this subdivision?”

The old man asked, “How were the folks where you lived before?”

The new neighbor replied, “They were cruel, selfish and unkind.”

“You’ll find similar people in this subdivision also,” replied the old neighbor.

The moral of the story is that we are the makers of our own world and today if the world is an ugly and nasty place, it’s because that’s what we are.

Hardly a day goes by that we don’t complain, criticize, blame, gossip or compare ourselves to other people. Many of us live with a victim mentality which comes from the idea that we are not responsible for our actions and circumstances. Today, thanks to the internet and social media, this disease has taken the proportion of a pandemic. The so called victims portray themselves as unfortunates who demand to be rescued. My typical question to them is, “So what are you doing about this?”

The fact remains that most of us are not fighting to survive genocide, poverty, or daily street violence from an insurgent militia. We just have the gift of time to surmount negative emotions.

The Japanese are ingenious and hardworking folks. They rebuilt their country into an economic powerhouse after they were ruined in World War II. On the contrary, many countries in the Middle East are in a pitiable condition because they cannot rise above the victim mentality.

As a society, we are so quick to assign blame and pull out all the excuses as to why something did or did not happen. All the “He made me, she made me….” finger pointing are signs of victim mentality. Stephen Covey writes in his famous book, “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, “Dependent people need others to get what they want. Independent people can get what they want through their own effort.”

Independent people work on things that can change their situation using positive energy whereas dependent people focus on concerns only without doing anything about it. They spend their time in blaming and accusing others with increased feeling of victimization.

It does us no good to shield ourselves from our own inertness and inability. Unfortunately, it is convenient to be lazy and blame others for our own plight. There are reasons why people do that. That way they avoid responsibility. They like it when others feel sorry for them and society feels compelled to help in getting what they want.

In fact, the world owes us nothing, so the folks with victim mentality should stop crying about entitlement and get out there and work for getting what they want. This will give them a push and will show them the reality of existence.

“You saw what was coming,

You could have resisted everything,

It was our time to get up,

And that was our day to win,

You are victims of your own.” –Rotten Sound

“In Praise of Futurists” By Anil Shrivastava “Musafir”

“In Praise of Futurists” By Anil Shrivastava “Musafir”

Now that September 2019 is almost here, the year 2020 can’t be far behind. Although I personally don’t have a 2020 vision in that matter, it is interesting to look at some forecasts in retrospect that were predicted for the year 2020.

• President Hillary Clinton will be a one-term President.

• The U.S. will not be a Democratic country, but a totalitarian one.

• By 2020, every road and street in America will be “replaced by a network of pneumatic tubes

• In the year 2020, the humans will arrive on Mars –Wired magazine in 1997.

• By 2020, “There will be no C, X, or Q in our everyday alphabet. – John Elfreth Watkins Jr.

• Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners would become a reality by 2020 – CoAlex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company in 1955

• By 2020, the machines will be producing so much that everyone in the U.S. will, in effect, be independently wealthy. –Time magazine in 1966.

I am not trying to poke fun at the futurists or prove them ridiculous. On the contrary, I marvel their aspiration and enthusiasm that we’re actually going to get to something which may sound far-fetched at the time. This also inspires the innovators among us to work on something that would one day overcome human boundaries and limitations.

Most of us don’t know what we don’t know. In order to know something we must know what we don’t know. The futurists and innovators know what they don’t know and they try to seek answers unknown realities.

Stanley Davis wrote in his book, Future perfect, “The newborn, for example, is not able to distinguish itself from its environment; it must sense the environment as “not me” before it can develop any distinct sense of “me.” The infant moves from not knowing that it doesn’t know, to knowing that it doesn’t know what is out there beyond itself, to knowing.”

“The child is father of the man,” penned William Wordsworth (1770-1850). This is true for the curiosity displayed by the futurists and innovators.

Unknown is a source of fear. The less we know, more threatened we feel. Lack of knowledge means we don’t know what we need to know to protect ourselves. Therefore Neanderthal and our ancestors in Stone Age worshipped rain and thunder gods instead

of inventing protective equipment such as umbrella and roof over their head. They didn’t know what they needed to know to protect themselves

There is nothing funny about trying to visualize what lies around the next curve. Futurists, whether it’s in books or movies, or experts predicting what may happen tomorrow are speaking to our innate desire we have for some control over our future, our fate, our survival. And even when they are wrong many a time, at least they give food for thought to innovators among us. One thing I know for sure that we humans will keep imagining and will keep reaching for the stars. So it be.

“What’s the Fuss over Kashmir?” by Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafir’

Introduction

Last week while I was asleep under the knife, the Indian government revoked special status for Indian-controlled Kashmir. Now that I am awake, I am trying to put the pieces together and understand what really happened that is so upsetting to the big powers and the Western world alike.

The Western world and China don’t want to accept that India is a truly secular country. They have been painting India as a Hindu oligarchy to demean her and put her at par with Pakistan forgetting that, unlike India, Pakistan was formed on the basis of hatred towards other religions prevailing in India. India is the home of around 200 million Muslims. The Indian Muslims are the most civilized and tolerant compared to the Muslims elsewhere in the world. So let us accept the fact that India’s action in Kashmir has nothing to do with religion as falsely painted by India haters.

Though Kashmir has a majority Muslim population, it cannot be dubbed as a Muslim state in a secular India. It’s just like asking the United States to declare Parts of Michigan a protected area because of the majority Muslim population there or ask China to declare Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia as Muslim states with special privileges to their citizens. In the same context Great Britain should let North Ireland (a truly occupied area) break away from the empire.

History

India is an ancient country not artificially carved like many other nations around the globe.   Before the partition of India in 1947, India had two different kinds of territories, one was directly ruled by Britain and others were princely states administered by local kings and princes who were under the British subjugation. But for millennia they were all a part of Greater India (Akhand Bharat). During India’s independence, those princely states were given a choice to join the Indian Territory or remain as separate countries (British divide and rule tactics). King Karan Singh of Kashmir chose to merge with India. Pakistan, being an Islamic country wanted Kashmir to be a part of their country. As a result they attacked Kashmir and grabbed Gilgit-Baltistan part of Kashmir under their authority.

Another important point to understand here is that Kashmir was already there as a part of contiguous India. India didn’t occupy by marching on to some other continent as the French have done to Guadeloupe, Martinique or Britain has done to Falkland, Gibraltar and many others. Remember, “People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.”

Did India Kill Kashmiris?

India didn’t kill Kashmiris On the contrary, extreme Kashmiri Muslims and terrorists from Pakistan killed Kashmiris. They also routed out the entire Hindu population living in Kashmir by killing, raping and snatching their properties. You never hear any mention of this fact in the West because of their hatred towards non-Abrahamic religion.  On the contrary they side and sympathize with the Muslim terrorists in Kashmir who have been on rampage for the last 70 years.

India’s action last week:

 For the last 70 years India provided special treatment to the Kashmiris through Article 370 and 35A. The former meant having two different constitutions one for Kashmir another for most of India. Article 370 was a filter between the two constitutions. 35 A meant that no Indian could settle or buy land in Kashmir but the Kashmiris could buy land anywhere in India. No non-Kashmiri could be admitted in their schools while they could avail of any facility anywhere in India. Unlike colonial powers, India didn’t take anything from Kashmir; it rather poured billions in Kashmir free of cost.

Now, tell the ignorant media and diplomats to allow any state, say, New Jersey, to oust the rest of the Americans from their state and snatch their properties or deny admissions to the outsiders in their schools while allowing the folks from New Jersey to own property and go to any school anywhere  in the US. Sounds fair?

Fade up with this nonsense, the Modi government finally decided to end the special privilege for the Kashmiris. The changes the Indian government announced last week would overturn Article 370, as well as another provision that prevent nonresidents from buying property in then  Jammu and Kashmir. The government also said it would reconstitute the state administratively and reorganize it into two federal territories. One of these — still called Jammu and Kashmir — would have a state legislature, while the other, a remote mountainous area called Ladakh, would be a union territory like Washington DC.

Conclusion

You may here about UN mediating in Kashmir or having a plebiscite to let Kashmiris decide their future. Yes, some blunders were made by the old leaders of India who were weak and obsequious to stronger countries. India is strong now and it considers its action in Kashmir as its internal matter and denies the UN or the US to intervene in its internal matters.  The USA, China and Russia have done the same in the past to protect their own interest. Those days are gone when India succumbed to the pressure from others. This is a new India and it will protect its sovereignty at all costs. As for Kashmir, its future is bright. They will have new industries and opportunities so that they will also become like the rest of India very soon.

 

Trump’s Foreign Policy: Too Many Irons in the Fire? By Anil Shrivastava ‘Musafir’​

Mr. Trump has engrossed himself in too many dramas. It will be interesting to know how his end game will shape up. Seems like he has stretched himself too thin. Trump has opened up too many dizzying foreign policy battlefronts including an array of trade wars around the globe. Mr. Trump has a wide range of enemies compared to friends.

He is involved in major economic deal with China, while threatening them with incremental tariffs. He’s having a war of nerves with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un to try to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, an effort inextricably linked to China. He just wrapped up renegotiating NAFTA with Canada and Mexico, after threatening both countries with massive steel and aluminum tariffs. He’s threatening the rest of the world to create a fair playing field for equitable trade or else. He is threatening Iran to stop its nuclear ambition. He is trying to get a stronger deal with the Europeans and is striving for regime changes in Venezuela and Cuba. It seems that there are too many balls in the air for him to juggle all at once.

People are getting anxious specially fueled by media and leftist frenzy about uncertainties of the outcome of his maneuvers. One possibility may be that it is all work-in-process (WIP). Everything takes time to materialize. Wars are not won in a day. What matters most is the effectiveness of Trump’s policy over time and its consistency with U.S. national interests, not the personal qualities his demeanor.

People also doubt his competency in foreign policy matters because he tends to make important decisions against the advices of his cabinet advisors. He has had unprecedented turnover in senior foreign and defense policy positions and already has had three national security advisors. It seems that there is no steady decision-making process within the administration because the president apparently does not believe that he needs one.

At the same time, there is no doubt that Trump deserves more credit than his critics give him, but less than his most fervent fans – and the president himself. After all, the Europeans are paying more for NATO as their share of the budget. He stood up to Syria against using chemical weapons against its citizens;  He has gotten rid of ISIS; North Korea has not tested any ICBMs in recent months and China is paying as Trump keeps increasing tariffs on their products. The American companies are choosing to shift manufacturing elsewhere from China including Apple, Nintendo and Dell.  They are going to Vietnam, Malaysia and India instead. Among Chinese companies themselves, electronics giant TCL is moving its TV production to Vietnam and Sialon Tire is shifting its tire manufacturing line to Thailand. Others are relocating manufacturing operations to more established, lower cost countries including Mexico.Yes, the American manufacture

rs will suffer too to some extent in paying higher consumer prices and loss of crop exports to China. But those losses will be far less for the US and can be managed in a short run. People can live by paying a little more for their TVs and iPhones but they cannot sustain themselves in lack of food and fuel that the United States has in plenty.

Trump’s foreign policy is totally America centric. But this has been the case with the greatest foreign-policy presidents identified by the historians which include George Washington, John Adams, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Richard Nixon. All of the above presidents’ primary concerns have been the security of the nation, the prosperity of its people, and an understanding of the global situation at the time rather than pursuing idealistic fantasies all the time. America’s interests change in different times and places, so realism means different things to different presidents, and encompasses a broad range of policies.

As the great political philosopher of India, Kautilaya said, a King should use four different policies in four different circumstances. A king may have to make friends with certain enemies such as North Korea; he may have to bribe and favor certain countries as Trump is doing to the opposition in Venezuela; certain enemies may need punishment such as Iran and Syria and the king may have to divide-and rule in certain conditions as our policies in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Yemen signify.

So, it makes sense to give Trump’s WIP some more time to rip the benefit from his seemingly confusing foreign policy.